1/234 0.09-1.23 aaa 先问大家一个问题，08-30 20:04:08-08-30 20:04:11First, I ask everyone a question.
2/234 1.89-4.95 xss 如果有人把脖子伸到你刀底下冲你砍，08-30 20:04:08-08-30 20:06:51If someone puts their neck under your knife and tries to attack you,
3/234 5.13-5.85 n 有种你砍啊，08-30 20:04:09-08-30 20:04:11There's a way to cut it,
4/234 6.39-7.35 n 你砍还是不砍？08-30 20:04:10-08-30 20:04:11Do you cut or not?
5/234 8.01-8.37 hp 注意啊，08-30 20:04:11-08-30 20:04:13Attention,
6/234 8.73-9.99 n 这不是街头斗殴，08-30 20:04:12-08-30 20:04:14This is not a street fight.
7/234 10.35-11.97 n 这是国与国之间的博弈。08-30 20:04:12-08-30 20:04:14This is a game between countries.
8/234 12.63-14.49 aaa 我说的就是英国和俄罗斯。08-30 20:04:13-08-30 20:04:17I'm talking about Britain and Russia.
9/234 14.73-15.51 de 最近这出大戏。08-30 20:04:14-08-30 20:04:34The recent big play.
10/234 16.29-17.07 de 八月二十七号，08-30 20:04:14-08-30 20:04:35August 27th,
11/234 17.49-21.03 hp 俄罗斯外交部发言人扎哈罗瓦在记者会上放了一句话，08-30 20:04:15-08-30 20:04:20The Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Zakharova, made a statement at the press conference.
12/234 22.05-25.71 n 英国向乌克兰转让了风暴之影巡航导弹的制造技术。08-30 20:04:16-08-30 20:04:19The UK transferred the manufacturing technology of Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine.
13/234 26.43-26.73 bg 他说，08-30 20:04:16-08-30 20:04:32He said,
14/234 26.91-27.93 n 英国这是在玩火，08-30 20:04:17-08-30 20:04:19Britain is playing with fire.
15/234 28.53-29.79 n 后果完全无法预料。08-30 20:09:19-08-30 20:09:20The consequences are completely unpredictable.
16/234 30.22-30.88 aaa 更重要的是，08-30 20:04:18-08-30 20:04:20More importantly,
17/234 31.24-32.14 jd 他说了一句话，08-30 20:04:19-08-30 20:04:20He said a sentence.
18/234 32.92-35.44 n 如果乌克兰用英国武器打俄罗斯本土，08-30 20:04:20-08-30 20:04:23If Ukraine uses British weapons to attack Russia's mainland,
19/234 35.92-41.56 n 那英国在乌克兰境内和境外的所有军事设施都可能成为俄罗斯的报复目标。08-30 20:04:20-08-30 20:04:25All military facilities in Ukraine, both inside and outside the country, may become targets of retaliation by Russia.
20/234 42.34-43.54 aaa 这话分量多重，08-30 20:04:21-08-30 20:04:23This is a heavy statement.
21/234 44.2-45.22 hp 相当于告诉英国，08-30 20:04:22-08-30 20:04:24Tell the British,
22/234 45.64-46.54 jd 你再拱火，08-30 20:04:22-08-30 20:04:23If you keep stirring the pot,
23/234 47.14-48.22 n 我不光打你的人，08-30 20:04:24-08-30 20:04:26I'm not just the one who hits you,
24/234 48.34-49.24 aaa 在乌克兰的句点，08-30 20:04:24-08-30 20:04:27In Ukraine, the point.
25/234 49.66-51.04 jd 我可能直接打你本土。08-30 20:04:25-08-30 20:04:26I might just hit you right in the face.
26/234 51.34-52.96 hp 结果你猜英国怎么回应呢？08-30 20:04:26-08-30 20:04:29So, what do you think the British response will be?
27/234 53.98-54.46 n 同一天，08-30 20:04:26-08-30 20:04:28On the same day,
28/234 55.0-58.3 n 英国独立帮我干了一件让全世界瞠目结舌的事儿，08-30 20:04:27-08-30 20:04:29Britain did something that shocked the world,
29/234 58.84-61.31 jd 他们直接上现了一张交互式地图，08-30 20:04:28-08-30 20:04:29They immediately showed a interactive map.
30/234 61.94-65.9 aaa 把英国全境两千多个军事基地的位置全部标了出来。08-30 20:04:28-08-30 20:04:34Mark the locations of all 2,000 military bases in Britain.
31/234 66.72-71.49 n 三十多处空军基地精确到经纬度哪个区域基地最密？08-30 20:04:30-08-30 20:04:33Which area has the most airbases, with precise coordinates for over 30?
32/234 72.04-75.49 jd 英格兰南部汉普郡奥尔德肖特周边三十五座，08-30 20:04:30-08-30 20:04:33Thirty-five in the southern part of Hampshire, England, near Aldershot.
33/234 76.29-78.07 hp 苏格兰西部三十二座，08-30 20:04:31-08-30 20:04:34Thirty-two castles in the Scottish Highlands,
34/234 78.84-80.4 n 清清楚楚明明白白。08-30 20:04:32-08-30 20:04:33Clear and concise.
35/234 81.24-82.08 bg 这不是比喻，08-30 20:04:33-08-30 20:04:58This is not a metaphor.
36/234 82.51-84.37 n 这是真把地图怼到你脸上，08-30 20:04:34-08-30 20:04:36This is really putting the map in your face.
37/234 84.92-86.3 jd 来来来坐标给你。08-30 20:04:34-08-30 20:04:35Here are the coordinates.
38/234 86.66-90.27 n 你这啊这不就是水浒传里那个泼皮牛二吗？08-30 20:04:35-08-30 20:04:38You mean that's just the mischievous and cunning "Niu Er" from Water Margin?
39/234 90.71-92.71 aaa 杨制卖刀牛二耍赖，08-30 20:04:36-08-30 20:04:41Yang's knife-making, selling knives to the second one.
40/234 93.35-95.33 de 把脖子伸过去看有种你砍我。08-30 20:04:36-08-30 20:05:15Reach out and see if there's a knife.
41/234 96.17-97.73 hp 英国现在就是这么个做派，08-30 20:04:37-08-30 20:04:40The British are just like that,
42/234 98.11-99.88 de 但是这事没这么简单，08-30 20:04:38-08-30 20:05:06But this is not so simple.
43/234 100.77-102.93 jd 咱们得把八月份这条线从头捋一遍。08-30 20:04:38-08-30 20:04:40We need to review the August timeline from the beginning.
44/234 103.37-107.63 n 八月十七号英国星期日泰晤时报自己主动爆料，08-30 20:04:39-08-30 20:04:44On August 17th, the Sunday Times of The United Kingdom reported on its own initiative.
45/234 108.49-110.89 n 英国造的无人机正在被乌军用来炸，08-30 20:04:40-08-30 20:04:43British-made drones are being used by the Ukrainian army to attack.
46/234 111.07-112.51 hp 俄罗斯纵深的炼油厂。08-30 20:04:41-08-30 20:04:43Deep Russian refineries.
47/234 113.47-113.89 jd 注意啊，08-30 20:04:41-08-30 20:04:42Attention,
48/234 114.57-116.19 aaa 不是俄罗斯媒体挖出来的，08-30 20:04:42-08-30 20:04:45It wasn't dug up by Russian media.
49/234 116.65-118.03 jd 是英国人自己报的。08-30 20:04:43-08-30 20:04:44It was reported by the British.
50/234 118.9-119.32 hp 为什么？08-30 20:04:43-08-30 20:04:45Why?
51/234 119.96-122.0 n 因为俄罗斯方面一直在压着这事儿，08-30 20:04:44-08-30 20:04:46Because the Russian side has been suppressing this matter,
52/234 122.12-123.14 n 不想把事情闹大，08-30 20:04:45-08-30 20:04:47Don't want to make a big deal out of things,
53/234 123.56-125.06 jd 英国人直接替你曝光了，08-30 20:04:45-08-30 20:04:47The British directly exposed it for you.
54/234 125.6-127.58 aaa 相当于对全俄罗斯老百姓喊话，08-30 20:04:46-08-30 20:04:47Equivalent to addressing all citizens of Russia,
55/234 128.36-132.2 hp 看见没炸你们炼油厂的就是我们英国人提供的无人机，08-30 20:04:47-08-30 20:04:51Did you see the drones we provided to your refinery? They are British.
56/234 132.86-133.94 hp 你们政府不敢说，08-30 20:09:48-08-30 20:09:51Your government doesn't dare to say,
57/234 134.3-136.58 n 我替他说这是什么行为？08-30 20:04:48-08-30 20:04:50What do I say to him about this behavior?
58/234 137.06-138.32 jd 这是起脸输出。08-30 20:04:49-08-30 20:04:50This is the output from the face recognition.
59/234 138.68-139.4 n 八月十八号，08-30 20:04:49-08-30 20:04:50August 18th,
60/234 139.94-143.72 aaa 俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫在电视上表态了英国这种行为，08-30 20:04:50-08-30 20:04:53Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, made a statement on television about this behavior of Britain.
61/234 144.14-146.42 n 俄罗斯有权视为直接参战，08-30 20:04:51-08-30 20:04:53Russia has the right to be considered as directly involved in the conflict.
62/234 147.08-150.39 jd 原话是英国将承担由此引发的一切后果。08-30 20:04:51-08-30 20:04:53The original statement was that Britain would bear all the consequences.
63/234 150.93-151.95 n 这话够硬了吧。08-30 20:04:52-08-30 20:04:54That's pretty harsh.
64/234 152.13-153.63 hp 但拉夫洛夫还补了一句，08-30 20:04:53-08-30 20:04:55But Lavrov added,
65/234 154.23-159.33 aaa 如果英国要陪乌克兰一直走到黑自己也只能替英国感到遗憾。08-30 20:04:54-08-30 20:04:57If the UK is going to stand by Ukraine until the end, then I can only feel sorry for Britain.
66/234 160.05-162.21 jd 注意这个措辞感到遗憾，08-30 20:04:54-08-30 20:04:56I regret the wording.
67/234 162.81-163.59 n 这说明什么？08-30 20:04:55-08-30 20:04:56What does this mean?
68/234 164.13-166.47 n 说明俄罗斯当时还在留余地，08-30 20:04:56-08-30 20:04:57Explain that Russia was still holding back,
69/234 167.13-168.33 hp 还没打算撕破脸。08-30 20:04:56-08-30 20:04:59Not yet ready to confront.
70/234 168.81-169.59 n 八月二十四号，08-30 20:04:58-08-30 20:04:59August 24th,
71/234 170.31-173.67 aaa 英国新上任的首相伯纳姆就任后，08-30 20:04:58-08-30 20:05:00After the newly appointed British Prime Minister Burnham took office,
72/234 173.91-174.63 n 第一次外访，08-30 20:04:59-08-30 20:05:00First time abroad,
73/234 175.29-175.95 bg 哪儿都没去，08-30 20:05:00-08-30 20:05:28I haven't been anywhere.
74/234 176.67-177.75 jd 直接飞基辅。08-30 20:05:00-08-30 20:05:01Go directly to Kyiv.
75/234 178.59-179.25 n 到了基辅。08-30 20:05:01-08-30 20:05:02Arrived in Kyiv.
76/234 179.43-185.06 hp 当抗宣布英国批准向乌克兰转让风暴之影巡航导弹的制造技术。08-30 20:05:02-08-30 20:05:07When the announcement was made that Britain had approved the transfer of Storm Shadow cruise missile manufacturing technology to Ukraine.
77/234 185.98-188.68 n 伯纳姆的原话是应泽连斯基的请求，08-30 20:05:02-08-30 20:05:05Bernham's original words were at the request of Andrey Zelensky.
78/234 189.84-191.16 aaa 风暴之影是什么东西？08-30 20:05:03-08-30 20:05:04What is a shadow of the storm?
79/234 191.8-197.21 jd 英法联合研发的空设远程巡航导弹射程两百五十到五百五十公里，08-30 20:05:04-08-30 20:05:08The range of the jointly developed British and French long-range cruise missiles is between 250 and 550 kilometers.
80/234 197.86-199.12 n 钻头四百五十公斤。08-30 20:05:04-08-30 20:05:06Drill weighs 450 kilograms.
81/234 199.78-200.74 aaa 以前是英国，08-30 20:05:05-08-30 20:05:06Used to be British.
82/234 200.86-201.88 n 从库存里直接给，08-30 20:05:06-08-30 20:05:07Directly from the inventory,
83/234 202.51-204.49 de 现在直接给图纸给技术，08-30 20:05:06-08-30 20:05:36Now, I'm just giving you the drawings and technical specifications.
84/234 205.19-206.21 n 让乌克兰自己造。08-30 20:05:07-08-30 20:05:08Let Ukraine do it itself.
85/234 206.89-207.79 aaa 这意味着什么？08-30 20:05:08-08-30 20:05:09What does this mean?
86/234 208.38-210.78 n 意味着乌克兰今后可以不受限制的生产，08-30 20:05:08-08-30 20:05:11It means that Ukraine can produce without restrictions in the future.
87/234 210.9-212.76 hp 这种能达到俄罗斯腹地的导弹。08-30 20:05:09-08-30 20:05:13This is a missile that can reach the Russian hinterland.
88/234 213.19-215.89 jd 普京的新闻秘书佩斯科夫当天回应了四个字，08-30 20:05:10-08-30 20:05:12Putin's press secretary Peskov responded with four words that day.
89/234 216.56-217.16 n 火上浇油。08-30 20:05:10-08-30 20:05:12Add fuel to the fire.
90/234 218.02-219.52 aaa 然后就是八月二十七号，08-30 20:05:11-08-30 20:05:13Then, on August 27th,
91/234 219.7-220.66 n 扎哈罗娃的警告，08-30 20:05:12-08-30 20:05:14Zahra's warning,
92/234 221.26-225.76 n 再然后就是英国独立报当天就把全国军事基地坐标亮了出来。08-30 20:05:12-08-30 20:05:16Then, the British Independent Newspaper immediately revealed the coordinates of all military bases across the country.
93/234 226.09-227.89 jd 整个八月份这条线捋下来，08-30 20:05:13-08-30 20:05:15Following this line throughout August,
94/234 228.33-229.59 aaa 你会发现一个规律，08-30 20:05:14-08-30 20:05:15You will find a pattern,
95/234 230.39-231.71 hp 英国在步步紧逼。08-30 20:05:14-08-30 20:05:17Britain is closing in.
96/234 232.23-235.32 n 俄罗斯在步步退让八月十七号，08-30 20:05:15-08-30 20:05:18Russia is backing down step by step on August 17th.
97/234 235.5-236.58 jd 英国曝光无人机。08-30 20:05:16-08-30 20:05:17Exposure of drones in the UK.
98/234 237.16-238.06 de 俄罗斯没动手，08-30 20:05:16-08-30 20:05:34Russia didn't take action.
99/234 238.91-239.69 aaa 八月十八号，08-30 20:05:17-08-30 20:05:18August 18th,
100/234 239.87-241.19 n 拉夫罗夫口头警告，08-30 20:05:18-08-30 20:05:19Lavrov warned verbally,
101/234 241.61-242.45 hp 英国没当回事。08-30 20:05:18-08-30 20:05:21The British didn't care.
102/234 243.36-244.2 jd 八月二十四号，08-30 20:05:19-08-30 20:05:20August 24th,
103/234 244.38-245.28 n 转让导弹技术，08-30 20:05:20-08-30 20:05:21Transfer missile technology,
104/234 245.64-246.9 aaa 俄罗斯还是没动手。08-30 20:05:20-08-30 20:05:22Russia hasn't taken action yet.
105/234 247.34-248.12 n 八月二十七号，08-30 20:05:21-08-30 20:05:22August 27th,
106/234 248.24-250.26 jd 扎哈罗娃再警告英国，08-30 20:05:22-08-30 20:05:23Zaharova warns Britain again,
107/234 250.5-252.0 n 直接把地图拍桌上了。08-30 20:05:22-08-30 20:05:24He just slammed the map on the table.
108/234 252.91-255.88 hp 每一步英国都在试探俄罗斯的底线，08-30 20:05:23-08-30 20:05:28Every step that Britain takes is a test of Russia's bottom line.
109/234 256.83-259.35 aaa 每一步俄罗斯都在用嘴巴回应。08-30 20:05:24-08-30 20:05:25Every step, Russia responds with its mouth.
110/234 260.22-261.06 n 那问题来了，08-30 20:05:24-08-30 20:05:25That's the problem.
111/234 261.59-263.39 jd 俄罗斯到底会不会砍这一刀？08-30 20:05:25-08-30 20:05:27Will Russia really cut it?
112/234 264.25-265.21 de 要回答这个问题，08-30 20:10:27-08-30 20:10:52To answer this question,
113/234 265.57-267.85 n 咱们得先看懂英国的如意算盘。08-30 20:05:26-08-30 20:05:29We need to understand the British abacus first.
114/234 268.3-269.38 aaa 英国这波操作，08-30 20:05:27-08-30 20:05:28British operation,
115/234 269.99-271.969 n 不管俄罗斯动手还是不动手，08-30 20:05:28-08-30 20:05:29Whether Russia attacks or not,
116/234 272.27-272.75 jd 他都赢。08-30 20:05:28-08-30 20:05:29He won.
117/234 273.67-274.87 aaa 如果俄罗斯动手了，08-30 20:05:30-08-30 20:05:30If Russia attacks,
118/234 275.37-276.93 bg 导弹打到英国本土了，08-30 20:05:30-08-30 20:06:02Missiles hit the British mainland.
119/234 277.52-281.24 n 那英国立刻要求北约启动第五条共同防御条款。08-30 20:05:31-08-30 20:05:34The British immediately demanded that NATO activate the fifth article of mutual defense.
120/234 282.21-283.47 n 本院第五条规定，08-30 20:05:32-08-30 20:05:34Article 5 of this court stipulates that...
121/234 284.03-286.55 jd 攻击任何一个成员国就是攻击全体，08-30 20:05:32-08-30 20:05:34Attacking any one member state is attacking all.
122/234 287.03-288.77 aaa 到时候就不是俄无冲突了。08-30 20:05:33-08-30 20:05:35Then it won't be a conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
123/234 289.23-291.21 hp 是俄罗斯跟整个北约开战，08-30 20:05:34-08-30 20:05:37If Russia were to go to war with NATO,
124/234 292.17-293.61 de 英国损失几个基地，08-30 20:05:35-08-30 20:05:54The British lost several bases.
125/234 293.97-297.81 jd 十几个人换来的是整个北约跟俄罗斯全面开战，08-30 20:05:35-08-30 20:05:38What came out of the dozen people was a full-scale war between NATO and Russia.
126/234 298.59-300.27 n 这笔账怎么算都划算。08-30 20:05:36-08-30 20:05:38This deal is a win-win situation.
127/234 301.23-302.43 n 如果俄罗斯不动手，08-30 20:05:37-08-30 20:05:38If Russia doesn't take action,
128/234 302.91-303.36 aaa 那更好，08-30 20:05:37-08-30 20:05:38That's better,
129/234 304.28-306.62 de 英国政客可以在全世界面前喊话。08-30 20:05:38-08-30 20:06:08British politicians can make speeches in front of the whole world.
130/234 307.36-307.84 hp 看见没，08-30 20:05:38-08-30 20:05:40Look,
131/234 308.35-309.55 jd 我都这么炸他了，08-30 20:05:39-08-30 20:05:41I've already fried him.
132/234 309.73-310.63 aaa 他都不敢还手，08-30 20:05:40-08-30 20:05:41He didn't dare to retaliate.
133/234 311.09-311.9 n 你们还怕什么？08-30 20:05:40-08-30 20:05:42What are you afraid of?
134/234 312.63-314.14 n 接着原屋接着打，08-30 20:05:41-08-30 20:05:43Then continue to demolish the original house,
135/234 314.91-318.15 hp 这会极大的刺激欧洲那些还在犹豫的国家。08-30 20:05:42-08-30 20:05:46This will greatly stimulate the European countries that are still hesitating.
136/234 318.93-321.33 jd 所以你看英国这招叫两头组，08-30 20:05:42-08-30 20:05:45So, what you see is that the British strategy is to build up both sides.
137/234 322.01-323.67 aaa 你打我启动本约，08-30 20:05:43-08-30 20:05:44You initiated the agreement.
138/234 324.38-327.49 n 你不打我羞辱你怎么着我都赚。08-30 20:05:44-08-30 20:05:47I don't get it, how can I make money if you don't hit me?
139/234 328.29-329.25 n 但我要说的是，08-30 20:05:44-08-30 20:05:46But I want to say that,
140/234 329.73-331.65 aaa 英国这套逻辑有个致命漏洞。08-30 20:05:45-08-30 20:05:47The logic in this British system has a fatal flaw.
141/234 332.16-336.54 jd 扎哈罗王的原话是乌克兰境内和境外的英国军事设施。08-30 20:05:46-08-30 20:05:48Zaharov said that the British military facilities are located in Ukraine and abroad.
142/234 337.39-338.23 hp 注意这个措辞，08-30 20:05:47-08-30 20:05:49Pay attention to this wording.
143/234 338.97-342.49 n 境外这个境外是整盘棋的破绽所在。08-30 20:05:47-08-30 20:05:50The weakness of the game lies in this "foreign" element.
144/234 343.42-345.52 aaa 英国在乌克兰有多少军事存在？08-30 20:05:48-08-30 20:05:50What military presence does the UK have in Ukraine?
145/234 346.4-346.7 n 武器、08-30 20:05:49-08-30 20:05:50Weapons,
146/234 346.88-347.06 jd 仓库、08-30 20:05:49-08-30 20:05:50Warehouse
147/234 347.59-348.25 hp 军事顾问、08-30 20:05:50-08-30 20:05:52Military Advisor
148/234 348.71-348.95 aaa 培训、08-30 20:05:51-08-30 20:05:51Training,
149/234 349.13-349.37 n 据点、08-30 20:05:51-08-30 20:05:52According to the point,
150/234 350.18-350.36 jd 情报、08-30 20:05:52-08-30 20:05:53Intelligence
151/234 350.6-351.08 n 中转中心，08-30 20:05:53-08-30 20:05:53Hub,
152/234 351.88-353.5 aaa 这些东西都在乌克兰境内，08-30 20:05:53-08-30 20:05:54These things are in Ukraine.
153/234 353.9-355.45 hp 不在英国本土俄罗斯。08-30 20:05:54-08-30 20:05:57Not in the UK, Russia.
154/234 355.57-356.53 n 如果打这些目标，08-30 20:05:55-08-30 20:05:56If you hit these targets,
155/234 357.01-357.67 jd 既报了仇，08-30 20:05:55-08-30 20:05:56Revenge,
156/234 357.97-359.23 n 又不触碰英国本土，08-30 20:05:56-08-30 20:05:57Not touching British territory,
157/234 360.03-361.47 de 北约第五条就没法启动。08-30 20:05:57-08-30 20:06:26The fifth article of the NATO treaty cannot be activated.
158/234 362.19-364.47 aaa 那英国为什么还要公布本土地图？08-30 20:05:57-08-30 20:05:59Why does the UK still publish land maps?
159/234 365.13-366.45 n 因为他们在转移视线，08-30 20:05:58-08-30 20:05:59Because they are shifting their gaze,
160/234 367.05-371.13 hp 把全世界的注意力都引向英国本土那些半公开的基地，08-30 20:05:59-08-30 20:06:04Draw the world's attention to those semi-public bases in Britain.
161/234 371.85-374.79 n 掩盖自己在乌克兰周边真正的军事软肋。08-30 20:06:00-08-30 20:06:02Conceal their true military weaknesses in the vicinity of Ukraine.
162/234 375.33-375.81 n 说白了，08-30 20:11:02-08-30 20:11:03In a nutshell,
163/234 376.29-377.97 aaa 英国这是在玩一场舆论战，08-30 20:06:01-08-30 20:06:03Britain is playing a propaganda war.
164/234 378.81-379.71 n 看起来硬气，08-30 20:06:02-08-30 20:06:03Looks tough,
165/234 380.07-381.69 jd 实际上是在掩饰心虚，08-30 20:06:03-08-30 20:06:04In reality, it is a cover-up.
166/234 382.59-384.39 n 咱们再把镜头拉远一点。08-30 20:06:03-08-30 20:06:05Let's pull the camera back a bit.
167/234 385.23-387.21 bg 英国为什么这么热衷于拱火？08-30 20:06:04-08-30 20:06:45Why is Britain so keen on stirring up trouble?
168/234 387.87-390.4 aaa 这得从英国几百年的国策说起，08-30 20:06:05-08-30 20:06:07This has to do with Britain's long-standing national policy.
169/234 391.18-392.14 n 英国是个岛国，08-30 20:06:05-08-30 20:06:07Britain is an island nation,
170/234 392.62-395.14 hp 他几百年来的核心战略就四个字，08-30 20:06:06-08-30 20:06:10His core strategy for centuries has been four words:
171/234 395.62-396.22 jd 理岸平衡，08-30 20:06:07-08-30 20:06:07Balance,
172/234 396.7-397.959 n 谁在欧陆上做大，08-30 20:06:07-08-30 20:06:09Who is dominating in Europe?
173/234 398.2-399.94 n 他就联合别人把谁按下去。08-30 20:06:08-08-30 20:06:10He would coordinate with others to suppress someone.
174/234 400.72-401.5 aaa 拿破仑崛起，08-30 20:06:09-08-30 20:06:10Napoleon's rise,
175/234 401.8-403.36 jd 他组织七次反法同盟，08-30 20:06:09-08-30 20:06:11He organized seven anti-French alliances.
176/234 404.14-404.74 de 德国统一，08-30 20:06:10-08-30 20:06:18German Unification
177/234 404.98-406.24 n 他转身联法之德，08-30 20:06:11-08-30 20:06:12He turned his back on the alliance with France.
178/234 407.02-407.74 hp 沙俄东扩。08-30 20:06:11-08-30 20:06:14Russian expansion eastward.
179/234 407.98-409.24 aaa 他在克里米亚开打，08-30 20:06:12-08-30 20:06:13He launched an attack in Crimea.
180/234 409.78-411.82 n 这套玩法可在英国的基因里，08-30 20:06:13-08-30 20:06:15This set of rules can be found in the British gene.
181/234 412.3-413.68 jd 他不需要欧陆和平。08-30 20:06:13-08-30 20:06:15He doesn't need European peace.
182/234 413.98-414.7 n 他需要欧陆，08-30 20:06:14-08-30 20:06:15He needs Europe.
183/234 414.88-416.44 aaa 永远在斗欧洲越乱，08-30 20:06:15-08-30 20:06:16Always fighting over Europe,
184/234 416.98-419.5 hp 资本技术人才就越往英美跑。08-30 20:06:15-08-30 20:06:19Capital, technology and talent are all flowing towards the UK.
185/234 420.51-421.11 jd 二战期间，08-30 20:06:16-08-30 20:06:17During World War II,
186/234 421.41-423.15 n 多少欧洲科学家跑到了英美，08-30 20:06:17-08-30 20:06:20How many European scientists have gone to the UK and US?
187/234 423.81-426.51 n 多少资本流向了英美那场战争，08-30 20:06:17-08-30 20:06:20How much capital flowed into the war in Britain and America?
188/234 426.69-428.79 aaa 帮英美奠定了战后的绝对优势。08-30 20:06:18-08-30 20:06:21The Allies, including the United States and Great Britain, established an absolute advantage after the war.
189/234 429.57-431.19 jd 现在同样的逻辑在重演，08-30 20:06:19-08-30 20:06:20The same logic is repeating now.
190/234 431.85-432.99 de 俄乌冲突打的越久，08-30 20:06:19-08-30 20:06:49The longer the conflict between Russia and Ukraine lasts,
191/234 433.41-436.71 hp 欧洲的企业越害怕资本就往英美跑的越快。08-30 20:06:20-08-30 20:06:25European companies are increasingly fleeing to the UK and US as they become more fearful of capital.
192/234 437.25-438.87 n 英国损失几个亿的军员，08-30 20:06:21-08-30 20:06:22The British lost several million soldiers.
193/234 439.41-442.47 jd 换来的是欧洲资本大逃亡带来的万亿级收益。08-30 20:06:21-08-30 20:06:23This brought a trillion-dollar windfall from the European capital flight.
194/234 443.19-445.77 n 这笔仗唐宁街算的比谁都清楚。08-30 20:06:22-08-30 20:06:24The government knows that this is a difficult situation.
195/234 446.73-449.07 aaa 所以你会发现一个特别讽刺的现象。08-30 20:06:22-08-30 20:06:24So you will find a very ironic phenomenon.
196/234 449.73-452.2 n 美国内这边都有叫停俄乌冲突的意思了，08-30 20:06:23-08-30 20:06:27The United States has also indicated that it wants to de-escalate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
197/234 452.74-456.52 jd 英国永远是那个踩油门的那俄罗斯到底会怎么选？08-30 20:06:24-08-30 20:06:27Britain will always be that guy who steps on the accelerator. What will Russia choose?
198/234 456.94-457.78 aaa 我的判断是，08-30 20:06:25-08-30 20:06:26My judgment is,
199/234 458.32-460.54 n 俄罗斯大概率不会直接打英国本土，08-30 20:06:25-08-30 20:06:28Russia is highly unlikely to directly attack the UK mainland.
200/234 461.38-462.88 hp 不是不敢是不划算。08-30 20:06:26-08-30 20:06:31It's not that I don't dare, it's not about the cost.
201/234 463.78-466.36 jd 打英国本土意味着跟整个北约开战，08-30 20:11:28-08-30 20:11:29Invading Britain means starting a war with the entire NATO.
202/234 466.9-468.4 aaa 俄罗斯现在没有这个实力，08-30 20:06:27-08-30 20:06:29Russia doesn't have that strength now.
203/234 468.7-469.66 de 也没有这个意愿，08-30 20:06:28-08-30 20:06:50I don't have the intention.
204/234 470.32-471.88 jd 但俄罗斯一定会报复。08-30 20:06:29-08-30 20:06:30But Russia will definitely retaliate.
205/234 472.12-474.28 n 打英国在乌克兰的军事设施。08-30 20:06:29-08-30 20:06:31Attack British military facilities in Ukraine.
206/234 474.88-477.1 n 打英国在黑海的军事存在。08-30 20:06:30-08-30 20:06:32Military presence of the UK in the Black Sea.
207/234 477.76-479.74 aaa 打英国参与的指挥节点，08-30 20:06:31-08-30 20:06:32The British participation command node,
208/234 480.41-483.83 jd 这些都在境外英国军事设施的范畴内，08-30 20:06:31-08-30 20:06:33These all fall within the scope of overseas British military facilities.
209/234 484.6-485.26 hp 既报了仇，08-30 20:06:32-08-30 20:06:34Revenge,
210/234 485.79-488.31 n 又让北约找不到启动第五条的借口。08-30 20:06:33-08-30 20:06:35This further prevents NATO from finding an excuse to activate Article 5.
211/234 489.21-489.45 aaa 而且，08-30 20:06:33-08-30 20:06:34In addition,
212/234 490.14-490.8 n 今年七月，08-30 20:06:34-08-30 20:06:35In July this year,
213/234 491.1-492.84 jd 俄罗斯已经撤回了驻英大使，08-30 20:06:35-08-30 20:06:36Russia has withdrawn its ambassador from the UK.
214/234 493.52-494.96 aaa 至今没有提名新人选，08-30 20:06:35-08-30 20:06:37So far, there have been no nominations for new candidates.
215/234 495.39-496.59 hp 外交渠道基本断了，08-30 20:06:36-08-30 20:06:39The diplomatic channels have basically broken down.
216/234 497.12-499.94 n 这意味着双方误判的风险在急剧上升，08-30 20:06:37-08-30 20:06:40This means that the risk of misjudgment is rapidly increasing on both sides.
217/234 500.92-503.26 n 擦枪走火的概率比任何时候都高。08-30 20:06:37-08-30 20:06:41The probability of a gun going off accidentally is higher than ever before.
218/234 504.11-505.25 jd 最后我想说一句，08-30 20:06:38-08-30 20:06:39Finally, I want to say one more thing,
219/234 506.03-509.03 aaa 英国这波操作表面上看是牛二耍横。08-30 20:06:38-08-30 20:06:40This operation by Britain seems like a petty act of defiance.
220/234 509.68-513.34 hp 实际上是一场极其精密的舆论算计和战略布局。08-30 20:06:40-08-30 20:06:44In fact, it was a highly sophisticated propaganda and strategic arrangement.
221/234 513.85-516.13 jd 他把俄罗斯逼到了一个两难的境地。08-30 20:06:40-08-30 20:06:42He put Russia in a difficult position.
222/234 516.88-516.94 n 答，08-30 20:06:41-08-30 20:06:42Okay,
223/234 517.63-522.41 aaa 可能引发世界大战不打就要承受被持续羞辱的代价。08-30 20:06:42-08-30 20:06:44The risk of a world war is not worth the cost of being constantly humiliated.
224/234 523.12-524.92 n 但俄罗斯这个民族有个特点，08-30 20:06:42-08-30 20:06:44But the Russian people have a characteristic,
225/234 525.44-527.0 n 你把它逼到墙角的时候，08-30 20:06:43-08-30 20:06:45When you push him to the corner,
226/234 527.46-529.62 jd 他往往会做出你意想不到的选择。08-30 20:06:44-08-30 20:06:45He often makes choices that are unexpected.
227/234 530.34-531.9 hp 至于这个选择到底是什么，08-30 20:06:45-08-30 20:06:47As for what this choice is,
228/234 532.29-533.25 aaa 咱们拭目以待。08-30 20:06:45-08-30 20:06:47Let's wait and see.
229/234 533.63-535.21 n 我是肥残一个，08-30 20:06:46-08-30 20:07:02I am overweight and disabled.
230/234 535.33-537.67 bg 只想把国际时政说清楚的博主，08-30 20:06:47-08-30 20:07:29A blogger who just wants to explain international politics clearly.
231/234 538.34-539.66 n 觉得有道理的点个赞，08-30 20:06:47-08-30 20:06:51If you think it's reasonable, give a like.
232/234 540.16-541.0 jd 有不同的看法，08-30 20:06:48-08-30 20:06:49There are different opinions.
233/234 541.3-541.84 aaa 评论区聊，08-30 20:06:49-08-30 20:06:49Comments,
234/234 542.53-543.55 hp 咱们下期见。08-30 20:06:49-08-30 20:06:51See you next time.