1/137 0.15-0.51 n 五年前,09-02 20:14:29-09-02 20:14:30Five years ago,
2/137 0.69-3.21 aaa 普京就没有尿前中庭局长伯恩斯的警告,09-02 20:14:30-09-02 20:14:32Putin's warning from former Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov,
3/137 3.39-4.17 n 入侵了乌克兰,09-02 20:14:31-09-02 20:14:32Invaded Ukraine,
4/137 4.35-6.69 n 陷入了五年之久的放血的泥道。09-02 20:14:32-09-02 20:14:34Trapped in a five-year bloodletting.
5/137 8.85-9.15 hp 大家好,09-02 20:14:33-09-02 20:14:34Hello everyone,
6/137 9.33-11.19 n 我是瑞格新任 c r a 的局长。09-02 20:14:33-09-02 20:14:35I am the new director of CRA.
7/137 11.37-11.73 aaa 几天前,09-02 20:14:34-09-02 20:14:35A few days ago,
8/137 11.91-12.39 n 低调了房。09-02 20:14:35-09-02 20:14:36Quiet the house.
9/137 12.45-14.25 hp 文文莫斯科西方媒体透露,09-02 20:14:36-09-02 20:14:39According to Western media reports,
10/137 14.49-17.43 de 拉特克里夫局长再次警告普京不要攻击北约成员国。09-02 20:14:37-09-02 20:15:16General Latkowski once again warned Putin not to attack NATO members.
11/137 17.73-21.45 n 我跟几位老东家的时政评论员私下热议了两个热门话题啊,09-02 20:14:38-09-02 20:14:42I had a private discussion with some old friends, who are political commentators, about two hot topics.
12/137 21.57-22.11 aaa 一个是波兰、09-02 20:14:39-09-02 20:14:40One is Poland,
13/137 22.23-23.43 n 立陶宛还是罗罗马尼亚,09-02 20:14:40-09-02 20:14:42Lithuania or Romania,
14/137 23.67-26.31 de 哪个北约的小兄弟先第一个被揍,09-02 20:14:41-09-02 20:15:17Which of NATO's little brothers was the first to be beaten?
15/137 26.55-29.49 hp 这个国家都是反俄第一阵营的北约成员国。09-02 20:14:42-09-02 20:14:47All the NATO member states in this country are part of the anti-Russian first tier.
16/137 29.85-30.57 aaa 另一个话题是,09-02 20:14:43-09-02 20:14:43Another topic is,
17/137 31.05-33.69 n 如果普京执意报复北约的欧洲盟友,09-02 20:14:43-09-02 20:14:47If Putin insists on retaliating against NATO's European allies,
18/137 33.99-35.01 n 美国会被卷入吗?09-02 20:14:44-09-02 20:14:46Will the United States be involved?
19/137 35.13-35.85 aaa 性价比如何?09-02 20:14:45-09-02 20:14:47How is the price-performance ratio?
20/137 36.09-37.47 aaa 先说第一个话题的结论,09-02 20:19:47-09-02 20:19:48Let's start with the conclusion of the first topic,
21/137 37.77-38.19 n 瑞格认为,09-02 20:14:47-09-02 20:14:48Reg wrote that...
22/137 38.31-40.24 aaa 俄罗斯军事行动一向诡秘不透明。09-02 20:14:48-09-02 20:14:50The Russian military operation has always been secretive and opaque.
23/137 40.48-41.68 hp k g b 背景的普京,09-02 20:14:49-09-02 20:14:52Background of Putin,
24/137 41.86-42.7 n 一旦拿定主意,09-02 20:14:50-09-02 20:14:51Once decided,
25/137 42.76-43.42 n 谁也拦不住的,09-02 20:14:51-09-02 20:14:52No one can stop it,
26/137 43.66-46.24 aaa 如果真的打击总是耍横的。09-02 20:14:52-09-02 20:14:53If it's always about being stubborn.
27/137 46.36-47.62 n 北约成员国瑞哥认为,09-02 20:14:53-09-02 20:14:54NATO member Sweden believes that,
28/137 47.92-49.96 hp 波兰和拉特维亚一定是第一波的目标,09-02 20:14:54-09-02 20:14:57Poland and Latvia should be the first targets.
29/137 50.26-52.78 n 也不排除近在咫尺的罗马尼亚挨揍,09-02 20:14:55-09-02 20:14:59It is also possible that Romania, which is right next door, will be beaten up.
30/137 53.08-56.32 aaa 那是北约援助乌克兰物流的必经之地。09-02 20:14:56-09-02 20:14:58It is a vital transit route for NATO aid to Ukraine.
31/137 56.56-61.72 n 波兰恨透了俄罗斯那种情绪可以横向比较成啊大部分中国人对日本的那种情感,09-02 20:14:57-09-02 20:15:02The Polish people harbor a deep-seated resentment towards Russia, which can be compared to the widespread sentiment among many Chinese citizens regarding Japan.
32/137 61.9-62.74 hp 这是历史的原因。09-02 20:14:58-09-02 20:15:01This is due to historical reasons.
33/137 63.1-66.1 aaa 波兰人对俄罗斯的仇恨不亚于对希特勒的愤怒。09-02 20:14:59-09-02 20:15:02The Polish people's hatred of Russia is no less than their anger towards Hitler.
34/137 66.34-67.18 xss 著名的卡丁事件,09-02 20:15:00-09-02 20:16:15The famous Karting incident,
35/137 67.3-68.14 n 大家网上查一查,09-02 20:15:01-09-02 20:15:02Please search online.
36/137 68.26-68.93 hp 就多明明白了。09-02 20:15:02-09-02 20:15:04He understood.
37/137 69.23-69.89 aaa 苏联解体后,09-02 20:15:03-09-02 20:15:04After the dissolution of the Soviet Union,
38/137 70.01-71.09 n 立陶宛公开反俄,09-02 20:15:04-09-02 20:15:05Lithuania openly opposes Russia,
39/137 71.21-73.13 n 并且不断的亵渎苏军的烈士墓。09-02 20:15:04-09-02 20:15:06And constantly desecrating the graves of Soviet soldiers.
40/137 73.37-74.27 aaa 莫斯科一忍在人。09-02 20:15:06-09-02 20:15:07Moscow is a city of tolerance.
41/137 74.61-75.72 n 那是因为二战结束时,09-02 20:15:07-09-02 20:15:10That's because after World War II,
42/137 75.84-78.96 n 斯大林用刺刀强行吞并了波罗地海的三个小国,09-02 20:15:08-09-02 20:15:11Stalin forcibly annexed three small countries in the Black Sea using bayonets.
43/137 79.08-80.04 bg 就包括了立陶宛。09-02 20:15:09-09-02 20:15:35It also includes Lithuania.
44/137 80.28-80.94 hp 如此反俄,09-02 20:15:10-09-02 20:15:12So anti-Russian,
45/137 81.06-82.44 aaa 莫斯科早就是忍无可忍,09-02 20:15:11-09-02 20:15:12Moscow has reached its breaking point,
46/137 82.79-83.63 n 但波兰是北约、09-02 20:15:12-09-02 20:15:13But Poland is a NATO,
47/137 83.81-87.35 n 欧洲成员国中军费最高和军火工业非常发达的国家。09-02 20:15:13-09-02 20:15:16The European countries with the highest military spending and a very developed arms industry.
48/137 87.65-91.4 aaa 美国也对波兰提供了大量的先进的军火冷静下来,09-02 20:15:14-09-02 20:15:18The United States has also provided Poland with a large amount of advanced military equipment, which is expected to help stabilize the situation.
49/137 91.64-97.34 hp 绝大部分人包括普京自己都不认为俄有非常迫切的动机去进攻或者主动进攻。09-02 20:15:15-09-02 20:15:22Most people, including Putin himself, do not believe that Russia has a very urgent motive to attack or launch an offensive.
50/137 97.52-100.16 n 北约的主权国家因为性价比太低了,09-02 20:15:16-09-02 20:15:18The sovereignty of NATO member states is too low,
51/137 100.52-101.0 n 得不偿失。09-02 20:15:17-09-02 20:15:19It's not worth it.
52/137 101.62-103.0 de 这是我们讨论的第二个话题。09-02 20:15:18-09-02 20:15:48This is the second topic we are discussing.
53/137 103.42-105.1 de 战争最怕的不是理性决策,09-02 20:15:19-09-02 20:15:50What war fears most is not rational decision-making.
54/137 105.28-108.16 aaa 而是失控与误判和擦枪走火。09-02 20:15:20-09-02 20:15:26Instead, it was due to loss of control and misjudgment, as well as a faulty gun.
55/137 108.52-113.02 n 拉特克里夫的莫斯科执行本质就是双方给对方相互的画红线,09-02 20:15:21-09-02 20:15:26The essence of Latkoff's Moscow execution was that both sides were drawing red lines for each other.
56/137 113.32-114.94 n 把最坏的可能性摆在台面上,09-02 20:15:22-09-02 20:15:24Consider the worst-case scenario,
57/137 115.3-118.78 hp 恰恰就是为了尽量避免不可控的悲剧发生。09-02 20:15:23-09-02 20:15:27That's exactly why we try to avoid uncontrollable tragedies.
58/137 119.02-120.94 n 而这位 c i a 的局长刚走,09-02 20:15:25-09-02 20:15:27And the director of this CIA just left,
59/137 121.24-123.52 n 俄罗斯转身就对英国发出了报复的威胁,09-02 20:15:27-09-02 20:15:29Russia has threatened to retaliate against the UK.
60/137 123.76-124.78 aaa 战争明显在升级,09-02 20:15:28-09-02 20:15:31The war is clearly escalating.
61/137 125.08-126.46 hp 很多人就在算一笔账啊,09-02 20:15:29-09-02 20:15:32Many people are doing calculations.
62/137 126.91-128.71 n 一旦俄军真的打击北约国家,09-02 20:15:30-09-02 20:15:32Once the Russian army actually strikes a NATO country,
63/137 129.01-131.65 n 北约第五条集体防御就会被激活。09-02 20:20:32-09-02 20:20:36NATO's Article 5, the collective defense clause, will be activated.
64/137 131.95-133.93 n 美国连土整个北约直接下场参战,09-02 20:15:32-09-02 20:15:34The United States, along with all NATO members, will directly participate in the war.
65/137 134.17-136.45 aaa 但对俄罗斯来讲是一个巨大的灾难,09-02 20:15:33-09-02 20:15:36But for Russia, it is a huge disaster.
66/137 136.63-137.11 hp 得不偿失。09-02 20:15:34-09-02 20:15:36It's not worth it.
67/137 137.35-139.57 n 我再来细致的拆解一下这种性价比吧。09-02 20:15:35-09-02 20:15:38Let's break down the value for money in more detail.
68/137 139.69-141.07 n 首先要分清两件事儿,09-02 20:15:35-09-02 20:15:38First, we need to distinguish between two things.
69/137 141.19-145.12 aaa 你在灰色地带挑衅和蓄意的主权领土攻击不是一码事儿。09-02 20:15:37-09-02 20:15:41Provoking and deliberately attacking the other side in a gray area is not the same thing.
70/137 145.5-148.92 hp 俄罗斯现在会做的是无人机的跃境电子站啦,09-02 20:15:38-09-02 20:15:42Currently, Russia is building a drone launch and control station.
71/137 149.28-152.16 n 海底基础设施洗扰这种切香肠的手段,09-02 20:15:39-09-02 20:15:42The underwater infrastructure disruption, like cutting a sausage.
72/137 152.51-157.19 n 他刻意把行动控制在不会触发北约第五条的红线之下。09-02 20:15:40-09-02 20:15:45He deliberately kept his actions within the red lines that would not trigger Article 5 of NATO.
73/137 157.43-157.67 aaa 那么,09-02 20:15:42-09-02 20:15:43So,
74/137 157.91-161.33 n 什么极端情况下才有可能出现攻击北约成员国呢?09-02 20:15:43-09-02 20:15:47What extreme circumstances could lead to an attack on a NATO member state?
75/137 161.64-162.06 hp 瑞克认为,09-02 20:15:44-09-02 20:15:46Rick believes that,
76/137 162.18-163.619 aaa 如果战争严重失控,09-02 20:15:45-09-02 20:15:46If the war is seriously out of control,
77/137 163.92-168.169 n 乌克兰的反攻直接威胁到了俄罗斯本土的核心安全。09-02 20:15:46-09-02 20:15:49The Ukrainian counteroffensive directly threatens the core security of Russia's homeland.
78/137 168.65-173.26 hp 那克里姆人宫补上国运和把危机转嫁到其他国家,09-02 20:15:47-09-02 20:15:53The Nacre people's palace is used to boost national fortune and transfer crises to other countries.
79/137 173.78-174.95 aaa 这是显而易见的一个选项。09-02 20:15:48-09-02 20:15:49This is an obvious option.
80/137 175.19-175.37 n 所以,09-02 20:15:49-09-02 20:15:50Therefore,
81/137 175.55-176.75 de 从理性博弈来讲,09-02 20:15:50-09-02 20:16:11From the perspective of rational game theory,
82/137 176.99-179.63 n 主动进攻北约国家是一笔严重的亏本买卖。09-02 20:15:51-09-02 20:15:54Launching a preemptive attack on NATO countries would be a costly mistake.
83/137 179.87-181.31 aaa 最难堪的是龙革。09-02 20:15:52-09-02 20:15:54The most difficult thing is to get rid of the dragon's skin.
84/137 181.61-184.91 n 如果说以前北约的欧洲盟国对我们还是睁只眼闭只眼,09-02 20:15:53-09-02 20:15:56If I say that before, the European allies of NATO didn't pay much attention to us,
85/137 185.15-187.13 de 那么一旦启动了北约第五条款,09-02 20:15:54-09-02 20:16:12Once the fifth article of NATO is activated,
86/137 187.49-189.29 hp 北京就会陷入非常大的被动,09-02 20:15:55-09-02 20:15:58Beijing will be in a very passive position.
87/137 189.59-191.81 aaa 很可能我们被迫做出欧洲人,09-02 20:15:55-09-02 20:15:57It is likely that we are forced to become Europeans.
88/137 191.99-194.09 n 希望我们做出的那种选择,09-02 20:15:56-09-02 20:15:59I hope that the choice we make,
89/137 194.21-198.6 n 这会危及到中俄五年来非常模糊的特殊的战略伙伴关系。09-02 20:15:57-09-02 20:16:02This will threaten the special strategic partnership between China and Russia, which has been very vague for five years.
90/137 198.84-200.64 aaa 我希望普京总统能想明白这一点,09-02 20:15:58-09-02 20:16:00I hope President Putin will understand this,
91/137 200.82-202.98 hp 中国人一定不愿意那种事情的发生。09-02 20:15:59-09-02 20:16:03Chinese people definitely don't want that to happen.
92/137 203.39-203.75 n 况且了,09-02 20:16:00-09-02 20:16:01Moreover,
93/137 203.93-205.97 aaa 我记得北欧的一个外长说到,09-02 20:16:01-09-02 20:16:03I remember a foreign minister from the Nordic countries saying,
94/137 206.21-208.61 n 我们这边已经明确的发出信息,09-02 20:16:02-09-02 20:16:04We have clearly communicated this information.
95/137 209.13-211.17 n 不会允许俄罗斯动用核武器,09-02 20:16:03-09-02 20:16:05Will not allow Russia to use nuclear weapons.
96/137 211.41-212.55 bg 可能是欲擒故纵吧。09-02 20:16:04-09-02 20:16:50It might be a case of wanting to keep someone at arm's length.
97/137 212.97-213.99 aaa 俄方表面作秀,09-02 20:16:05-09-02 20:16:06Russia is just putting on a show.
98/137 214.23-216.39 hp 发言人对这类的报道啊非常的愤怒。09-02 20:16:06-09-02 20:16:09The spokesperson was very angry about these reports.
99/137 216.57-220.77 n 比如克里姆林宫的发言人佩斯科夫啊直接播出了这些报道是耸人听闻。09-02 20:16:06-09-02 20:16:11For example, Kremlin spokesman Peskov directly refuted these reports as sensational.
100/137 221.15-223.43 n 那俄罗斯不承认自己有进攻北约的意图。09-02 20:16:07-09-02 20:16:11Russia denies that it has the intention to attack NATO.
101/137 223.61-223.97 hp 当然了,09-02 20:16:10-09-02 20:16:12Of course,
102/137 224.31-227.31 aaa 你说五年前普京也没有说自己要入侵乌克兰,09-02 20:16:11-09-02 20:16:13You said that five years ago, Putin didn't say he would invade Ukraine.
103/137 227.43-227.67 n 对不对?09-02 20:16:12-09-02 20:16:12Is it right?
104/137 227.86-231.92 n 所以我说俄罗斯这方面的动作是没有任何透明度可言的,09-02 20:16:13-09-02 20:16:15Therefore, I said that the actions of Russia are completely opaque.
105/137 232.04-232.76 de 大家不要太天真。09-02 20:16:13-09-02 20:16:42Don't be too naive.
106/137 233.06-235.66 hp 但是呢人家莫斯科也一再警告,09-02 20:16:15-09-02 20:16:18However, Moscow has repeatedly warned that...
107/137 235.839-238.3 de 欧洲国家不得持续向乌克兰提供武器,09-02 20:16:16-09-02 20:16:52European countries should not continue to provide weapons to Ukraine.
108/137 238.54-241.12 n 并且威胁要打击这些武器的源头。09-02 20:16:17-09-02 20:16:19And threatened to strike at the source of these weapons.
109/137 241.48-244.9 aaa 俄罗斯外德普发言人扎哈罗瓦的最新表态表明呢,09-02 20:16:18-09-02 20:16:20According to the latest statements by Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova,
110/137 245.32-250.42 hp 莫斯科方面掌握了英国向乌克兰提供在乌境内生产风暴、09-02 20:21:20-09-02 20:21:24Moscow has learned that the UK is providing Ukraine with storm-making technology,
111/137 250.66-250.84 n 制影、09-02 20:16:20-09-02 20:16:20Production,
112/137 251.02-251.56 xss 巡航导弹、09-02 20:16:21-09-02 20:17:17Cruise missiles,
113/137 251.68-252.94 hp 所需技术数据的信息,09-02 20:16:22-09-02 20:16:24Technical data required,
114/137 253.32-254.04 n 得明确警告。09-02 20:16:23-09-02 20:16:24It should be clearly warned.
115/137 254.28-258.42 aaa 俄方对乌克兰利用英国武器袭击俄罗斯本土的暴风,09-02 20:16:24-09-02 20:16:28Russia's fury over Ukraine using British weapons to attack Russian territory,
116/137 258.6-263.47 n 目标可能是乌克兰境内外任何英国军事设施和装备。09-02 20:16:25-09-02 20:16:28The target is any British military facility and equipment within or outside of Ukraine.
117/137 263.59-266.71 hp 再加上英国首相伯纳姆此前访问基辅时表示,09-02 20:16:26-09-02 20:16:30In addition, British Prime Minister Barnaby had stated during his visit to Kyiv that...
118/137 267.07-269.89 n 志愿联盟的军演将会如期举行,09-02 20:16:26-09-02 20:16:30The volunteer alliance's military exercise will be held as scheduled.
119/137 270.2-272.87 n 未在乌克兰境内部署英国军队做准备,09-02 20:16:29-09-02 20:16:32Not deploying British troops within the borders of Ukraine.
120/137 273.11-275.27 aaa 计划在停火协议后达成部署。09-02 20:16:30-09-02 20:16:32Plan to deploy after ceasefire agreement.
121/137 275.71-276.61 n 在俄罗斯看来,09-02 20:16:31-09-02 20:16:32In Russia's view,
122/137 276.67-280.15 hp 这已经是赤裸裸的超越了原著本身了,09-02 20:16:32-09-02 20:16:35This is already a blatant departure from the original work.
123/137 280.39-281.83 n 那就是直接准备下场了。09-02 20:16:33-09-02 20:16:36That means he's about to be taken off the field.
124/137 282.21-283.44 n 但这里也不能简单说,09-02 20:16:34-09-02 20:16:36But here, we can't simply say that...
125/137 283.62-286.32 aaa 俄罗斯绝对不会袭击北约成员国,09-02 20:16:34-09-02 20:16:37Russia will never attack NATO members.
126/137 286.62-287.04 hp never say,09-02 20:16:36-09-02 20:16:38never say,
127/137 287.4-287.46 n never.09-02 20:16:37-09-02 20:16:38Never.
128/137 288.0-288.9 n 那最大的危险,09-02 20:16:38-09-02 20:16:39The biggest danger,
129/137 289.08-291.3 aaa 恰恰不是普京主动想攻打北约,09-02 20:16:39-09-02 20:16:42It's not that Putin actively wanted to attack NATO.
130/137 291.65-294.49 n 而是战争长期化带来的战略误判,09-02 20:16:40-09-02 20:16:43Instead, the strategic misjudgment brought about by the prolonged nature of the war.
131/137 294.94-295.72 hp 严重的不信任。09-02 20:16:41-09-02 20:16:43Serious distrust.
132/137 296.08-296.98 n 那么无人机啊、09-02 20:16:42-09-02 20:16:43Drones,
133/137 297.34-298.059 de 导弹跃境啊,09-02 20:16:43-09-02 20:17:11Missile, it's going to cross the border!
134/137 298.18-298.78 aaa 边境对峙啊,09-02 20:16:44-09-02 20:16:45Border confrontation,
135/137 298.9-299.5 hp 一次误操作,09-02 20:16:45-09-02 20:16:47An accidental mistake,
136/137 299.62-301.36 n 就有可能触发全面战争,09-02 20:16:46-09-02 20:16:48This could trigger a full-scale war.
137/137 301.6-302.62 n 记得点赞关注哦。09-02 20:16:46-09-02 20:16:48Remember to like and follow.