1/145 1.29-3.15 aaa 今天聊一个不一样的话题啊,09-07 10:50:32-09-07 10:50:35Let's talk about something different today.
2/145 4.17-6.57 aaa 一个地方呢一年的收入是四点一四亿,09-07 10:50:35-09-07 10:50:37A place's annual income is 414 million.
3/145 6.75-9.15 de 但是光给员工发工资就要二十六亿,09-07 10:50:36-09-07 10:51:15However, simply paying employees a salary of 26 billion would be insufficient.
4/145 9.81-12.09 xss 缺口呢是自身收入的六倍。09-07 10:50:37-09-07 10:51:12The gap is six times the individual's income.
5/145 12.33-14.55 n 这个呢不是哪家公司的财务暴雷,09-07 10:55:38-09-07 10:55:40This isn't the financial crisis of any particular company.
6/145 15.09-19.83 n 而是贵州省毕节市大方县在二零二二年到二零二三年的真实情况。09-07 10:50:38-09-07 10:50:44Instead, this refers to the actual situation in Fang County, Bijie City, Guizhou Province from 2022 to 2023.
7/145 20.07-21.93 hp 到了二零二四年之后呢,09-07 10:50:39-09-07 10:50:41After 2024,
8/145 22.11-25.05 aaa 一般公共预算收入是八点二二亿,09-07 10:50:39-09-07 10:50:41The general public budget revenue is 8.22 billion,
9/145 25.41-27.27 bg 其中非税收入是二点九四亿,09-07 10:50:40-09-07 10:51:27The non-tax revenue was 2.94 billion,
10/145 27.45-29.49 n 支出却高达了五十七点八八亿,09-07 10:50:40-09-07 10:50:44However, the expenditure reached a staggering 57.88 billion.
11/145 29.67-31.05 aaa 差距超过五十二亿,09-07 10:50:42-09-07 10:50:43A difference of over fifty-two billion,
12/145 32.13-35.01 hp 财政自给率呢只有百分之十四点二。09-07 10:50:43-09-07 10:50:47The fiscal self-sufficiency rate is only 14.2%.
13/145 35.67-39.15 de 全县财政供养的总人数突破了四点四万,09-07 10:50:43-09-07 10:51:41The total number of people supported by the county's budget has exceeded 44,000.
14/145 39.39-41.07 aaa 全县人口六十万左右。09-07 10:50:44-09-07 10:50:47The population of the county is about 60,000.
15/145 41.49-42.09 n 算下来呢,09-07 10:50:45-09-07 10:50:46Calculated,
16/145 42.21-44.97 n 平均每十四个本地人里就有一个靠财政吃饭。09-07 10:50:46-09-07 10:50:49On average, one in every fourteen local residents relies on government funding.
17/145 45.57-46.35 n 有人可能会说,09-07 10:50:46-09-07 10:50:48Some people might say,
18/145 46.53-48.21 aaa 这个是偏远山区的特例,09-07 10:50:47-09-07 10:50:49This is a special case in the remote mountainous area.
19/145 48.39-49.41 hp 没有代表性,09-07 10:50:48-09-07 10:50:50Lack of representation,
20/145 50.13-52.77 n 但真相是大方县的经济状况,09-07 10:50:49-09-07 10:50:52But the truth is that the economic situation in Daxiang County,
21/145 52.89-54.45 n 在全国算中等偏下,09-07 10:50:50-09-07 10:50:53In terms of national ranking, it is in the middle and lower range.
22/145 54.75-55.65 aaa 并不是最穷的。09-07 10:50:50-09-07 10:50:51Not the poorest.
23/145 56.61-61.3 hp 西台财经大学在二零二五年省市县财政状况报告里显示呢,09-07 10:50:51-09-07 10:50:57According to the 2025 provincial, municipal and county financial status report released by Xitai Financial University,
24/145 61.42-66.75 aaa 全国两千七百七十四个县级地区平均的财政自给率只有百分之三十八。09-07 10:50:52-09-07 10:50:57The average fiscal self-sufficiency rate in the 2,774 county-level regions across China is only 38%.
25/145 67.2-67.68 n 也就是说,09-07 10:50:53-09-07 10:50:54That is to say,
26/145 68.29-71.05 n 县里边每花一百块钱只有三十八块钱,09-07 10:50:54-09-07 10:51:00In the county, every 100 yuan only has 38 yuan.
27/145 71.17-78.0 n 是自己挣的那剩下的六十二块钱呢就是靠转移支付中西部还有很多线会更差,09-07 10:50:55-09-07 10:51:03Is it the remaining 62 yuan earned by myself? It's mainly due to transfer payments in Central and Western regions, which are getting worse.
28/145 78.36-79.62 aaa 自给率不到百分之二十,09-07 10:50:58-09-07 10:51:00Self-sufficiency rate is less than 20%.
29/145 80.42-85.46 hp 而全国一千八百六十九个县域占了国土面积的百分之九十,09-07 10:50:58-09-07 10:51:06And the 1,869 county areas across the country account for 90% of the land area.
30/145 86.11-88.99 n 住了七点四亿个人超过全国人口的一半,09-07 10:51:00-09-07 10:51:06With a population of over 7.4 billion, it accounts for more than half the world's total population.
31/145 89.76-93.24 aaa 这么大的体量过半开支都不是本地挣来的。09-07 10:51:01-09-07 10:51:03More than half of the expenses are not earned locally.
32/145 93.36-94.92 n 所以大方县那个不是个例,09-07 10:51:03-09-07 10:51:06Therefore, the situation in Daxi County is not an isolated case.
33/145 95.56-98.2 aaa 它是全国几千个县城的缩影,09-07 10:51:04-09-07 10:51:06It is a microcosm of thousands of counties and cities across the country.
34/145 98.38-101.94 hp 是中国绝大多数普通县城真实的运转几色。09-07 10:51:06-09-07 10:51:11This is a true reflection of the operation of most ordinary county towns in China.
35/145 103.65-104.43 n 为什么说这些?09-07 10:51:07-09-07 10:51:08Why is this?
36/145 104.98-106.36 n 因为县城的这种脆弱,09-07 10:51:08-09-07 10:51:09Due to the vulnerability of this county,
37/145 106.72-112.06 aaa 平时被满街的豪车两三千一桌的饭局和七八千一平的楼盘给掩盖住了,09-07 10:51:08-09-07 10:51:14In the past, I was blinded by the sight of luxury cars and expensive dinners costing two or three thousand per table, as well as apartments priced at seven or eight thousand per square meter.
38/145 113.09-113.69 n 不仔细看,09-07 10:51:09-09-07 10:51:11If you don't look carefully,
39/145 113.87-114.71 n 你根本看不见。09-07 10:51:10-09-07 10:51:12You can't see it at all.
40/145 115.61-116.93 n 这两年呢越来越多,09-07 10:51:12-09-07 10:51:14In recent years, there have been more and more...
41/145 117.05-121.91 hp 在大城市被房租和裁员压得喘不过气的年轻人开始动了同一个念头,09-07 10:51:13-09-07 10:51:21Young people in big cities, who are struggling with high rents and job losses, have started to think about the same thing:
42/145 122.41-124.21 n 就是要不要干脆回县城算了。09-07 10:51:13-09-07 10:51:16Should I just go back to my hometown?
43/145 124.76-126.8 xss 看着短视频里小城青年的岁月,09-07 10:51:14-09-07 10:51:54Watching the youth of young people in small towns on short videos,
44/145 126.92-127.82 aaa 静好睡觉,09-07 10:51:15-09-07 10:51:15Sleep well,
45/145 128.06-128.78 n 睡到自然醒。09-07 10:51:15-09-07 10:51:16Wake up naturally.
46/145 128.96-130.04 aaa 下午河边遛遛弯,09-07 10:51:16-09-07 10:51:18Take a walk along the river in the afternoon.
47/145 130.64-132.2 de 晚上呢找老同学撸撸串,09-07 10:51:17-09-07 10:52:06Tonight, I'm going to grab some skewers with an old classmate.
48/145 132.86-134.66 n 仿佛只要逃离北上广深,09-07 10:51:17-09-07 10:51:21As if just escaping from the hustle and bustle of Beijing,
49/145 134.9-136.34 n 人生立刻就能变得便宜,09-07 10:51:18-09-07 10:51:21Life can be made cheaper immediately.
50/145 137.17-138.01 aaa 体面有安稳。09-07 10:51:19-09-07 10:51:21Dignified and stable.
51/145 138.96-141.18 hp 但是在你真正收拾行李之前,09-07 10:51:21-09-07 10:51:24But before you actually pack your bags,
52/145 141.36-147.99 aaa 请务必把现成的这份体面拆开来看一看它的繁荣从来不是市场自己挣出来的,09-07 10:51:22-09-07 10:51:26Please make sure to carefully examine this well-established and prosperous business. Its success is not solely the result of market forces,
53/145 148.05-150.23 n 而是借来的借的是别墅的钱,09-07 10:51:23-09-07 10:51:26Instead, it was borrowed. The money for the villa was borrowed.
54/145 150.47-151.43 n 借的是未来的钱。09-07 10:51:24-09-07 10:51:26Borrowed money from the future.
55/145 152.07-155.25 hp 而现在呢这两条借钱的路子正在同时变窄,09-07 10:56:25-09-07 10:56:29And now, these two ways of borrowing money are becoming narrower at the same time.
56/145 155.65-157.69 hp 第一条路是靠转移支付调着的。09-07 10:51:25-09-07 10:51:29The first way is to use transfer payments.
57/145 157.81-161.77 n 体制内经济县城街面上灯火通明的酒楼,09-07 10:51:26-09-07 10:51:29Bright lights in the city, with a bustling economy within the system.
58/145 162.01-165.19 aaa 周末满座的棋牌室到底是谁在撑着?09-07 10:51:27-09-07 10:51:29Who is keeping the weekend-full card room afloat?
59/145 166.0-166.72 n 民间有个词呢?09-07 10:51:28-09-07 10:51:31There's a saying in the local dialect?
60/145 166.78-167.5 bg 叫公务员经济,09-07 10:51:30-09-07 10:51:54Public sector economics,
61/145 168.23-169.43 hp 不仅仅是机关单位,09-07 10:51:30-09-07 10:51:33Not just government agencies,
62/145 169.61-172.11 n 还包括教师一户城头、09-07 10:51:31-09-07 10:51:32Also includes a teacher in the city,
63/145 172.47-173.45 aaa 烟草等等。09-07 10:51:32-09-07 10:51:33Tobacco and other related products.
64/145 173.69-175.25 n 事业单位和国企的职工。09-07 10:51:32-09-07 10:51:35Employees of public institutions and state-owned enterprises.
65/145 175.91-178.55 n 在很多缺乏产业的中西部县城,09-07 10:51:33-09-07 10:51:35In many underdeveloped counties in the central and western regions,
66/145 178.73-182.86 hp 这群靠财政发工资的人是本地唯一有能力高消费、09-07 10:51:34-09-07 10:51:41These people, who earn their living from government funding, are the only ones in this area with enough money to spend lavishly.
67/145 183.1-183.82 aaa 敢贷款、09-07 10:51:34-09-07 10:51:35Dare to lend,
68/145 184.18-184.42 n 买房、09-07 10:51:35-09-07 10:51:36Buying a house,
69/145 184.6-185.26 aaa 买车的群体,09-07 10:51:36-09-07 10:51:37The target group for buying cars,
70/145 186.03-189.72 n 他们的钱哪来的县城本地收不上来,09-07 10:51:37-09-07 10:51:41Where did their money come from? They can't make a living in the county,
71/145 189.9-191.54 n 多少税财政的钱呢?09-07 10:51:37-09-07 10:51:41How much money is in the treasury?
72/145 191.72-196.24 aaa 大部分靠中央和省里的转移支付拨下来的这笔钱发到他们手里,09-07 10:51:38-09-07 10:51:42Most of this money, which was allocated from transfers from the central and provincial governments, has been distributed to them.
73/145 196.36-199.69 n 再流向餐馆商超教培服务业。09-07 10:51:41-09-07 10:51:43Return to restaurants, supermarkets and training services.
74/145 200.18-200.6 de 也就是说,09-07 10:51:42-09-07 10:52:00That is to say,
75/145 200.78-201.98 n 那条商业街的热闹,09-07 10:51:43-09-07 10:51:44The bustling atmosphere of the commercial street,
76/145 202.16-204.98 hp 本质上是被上头的财政输血顶起来的。09-07 10:51:43-09-07 10:51:47Funded by the top-down financial transfusion.
77/145 205.99-207.97 aaa 它不是能自我造血的市场,09-07 10:51:44-09-07 10:51:46It's not a market that can self-generate.
78/145 208.09-210.89 n 而是一间靠着供暖活着的温室。09-07 10:51:45-09-07 10:51:48It is a greenhouse that relies on heating to survive.
79/145 211.73-216.65 n 一旦不款收紧积效情发这群唯一有消费能力的人开始捂紧钱包之后,09-07 10:51:45-09-07 10:51:52Once the situation of not receiving payment becomes tight, and this group of people who have the only ability to consume start holding back their spending,
80/145 217.3-219.88 aaa 收缩就会立刻顺着街面往下缠抖,09-07 10:51:46-09-07 10:51:49The contraction immediately causes it to twist and curl downwards along the street.
81/145 220.58-221.72 hp 烟酒店卖不出去,09-07 10:51:47-09-07 10:51:51The hotel is not selling well,
82/145 221.84-223.28 n 酒婚庆接不到单,09-07 10:51:49-09-07 10:51:51Wedding event agency, unable to get orders.
83/145 223.58-224.6 aaa 你瓦工没活干。09-07 10:51:50-09-07 10:51:51You have no work to do.
84/145 225.17-227.51 hp 很多底层的商贩连自己是怎么垮的,09-07 10:51:52-09-07 10:51:57Many of the low-level merchants don't know how they will go bankrupt.
85/145 227.63-228.35 aaa 都没弄明白。09-07 10:51:53-09-07 10:51:54I don't understand.
86/145 229.22-230.48 n 其实呢原因很简单,09-07 10:51:53-09-07 10:51:55Actually, the reason is very simple.
87/145 231.3-231.96 n 上游断水,09-07 10:51:54-09-07 10:51:55Upstream water outage,
88/145 232.26-232.86 bg 下游干涸。09-07 10:51:55-09-07 10:52:14Downstream drying.
89/145 234.32-238.28 aaa 第二条路呢是靠透支未来撑起的房地产闭环。09-07 10:51:55-09-07 10:52:00The second option is to create a real estate closed-loop that can be supported by future borrowing.
90/145 239.72-241.4 n 第一条路能维持正常的运转,09-07 10:51:56-09-07 10:52:00The first road can maintain normal operation.
91/145 241.94-245.36 n 但填不上那些三十层的住宅楼和几万平的人工湖,09-07 10:51:57-09-07 10:52:00But it can't fill those thirty-story buildings and the thousands of square meters artificial lake.
92/145 246.33-248.85 xss 这种量级的建设靠的是土地杠杆,09-07 10:51:57-09-07 10:53:07This kind of construction relies on land leverage.
93/145 249.27-253.4 hp 政府拿地抵押贷款修基建开发商进场,09-07 10:51:58-09-07 10:52:04Government takes land mortgage loans to build infrastructure, developers enter the site.
94/145 253.76-254.299 aaa 炒高地价。09-07 10:52:00-09-07 10:52:01Inflate land prices.
95/145 254.91-258.33 n 但这圈利盖楼的最终归宿是必须要有人来买单,09-07 10:52:01-09-07 10:52:04But the ultimate destination of this circle of luxury apartments is that someone has to pay for it.
96/145 259.28-260.72 de 县城怎么逼人接盘?09-07 10:52:02-09-07 10:52:46How can a county town force someone to take over the business?
97/145 261.45-265.77 n 答案是把全县最好的医疗优质的学位跟新区的房子死死绑定,09-07 10:52:02-09-07 10:52:08The answer is to tightly link the best medical and healthcare qualifications in the county with housing in the district.
98/145 266.35-267.07 aaa 再配合上,09-07 10:52:04-09-07 10:52:05In addition,
99/145 267.25-273.53 hp 没有房不结婚的相亲铁律教育和婚姻两座大山一家周边乡镇的农民和小商贩,09-07 10:52:05-09-07 10:52:13The iron rule of "no house, no marriage" in education and the two big mountains of marriage and poverty in a neighboring town: farmers and small merchants.
100/145 273.77-274.49 n 再也没有退路,09-07 10:52:06-09-07 10:52:08There is no turning back,
101/145 275.19-277.35 aaa 千万个底层家庭掏控六个钱包,09-07 10:52:06-09-07 10:52:08Millions of low-income families are using six wallets,
102/145 277.47-278.97 de 按下了三十年房贷的手印。09-07 10:52:07-09-07 10:52:30Pressed the mortgage button for 30 years.
103/145 279.87-282.45 n 正是这千万个家庭透支了未来的收入,09-07 10:52:08-09-07 10:52:12It is precisely these millions of families who are sacrificing their future income,
104/145 282.85-285.55 n 才拖住了这整套虚高体面的运转。09-07 10:52:09-09-07 10:52:12It has finally stalled the entire pretentious and inflated system.
105/145 286.39-288.61 aaa 但现在潮水正在退去,09-07 10:52:10-09-07 10:52:12But now the tide is receding,
106/145 288.91-289.87 aaa 城镇化涨不动了,09-07 10:52:13-09-07 10:52:14Urbanization has stalled.
107/145 290.11-290.83 n 人口在下降,09-07 10:52:13-09-07 10:52:15The population is declining.
108/145 291.13-292.87 n 新一代年轻人连婚都不想结了,09-07 10:52:14-09-07 10:52:17The new generation of young people don't even want to get married.
109/145 292.99-296.11 hp 没人再愿意当最后接盘的那个人上面,09-07 10:52:15-09-07 10:52:19No one is willing to be the last person on board.
110/145 296.47-299.35 aaa 苏血在收缩下面接盘的人在减少。09-07 10:52:15-09-07 10:52:19The people who are picking up the slack under the contraction of Suzhou blood are decreasing.
111/145 299.59-301.39 bg 现成的账有点算不过来了。09-07 10:52:16-09-07 10:52:53The existing accounts are not accurate enough.
112/145 302.51-305.15 n 现成的衰退呢不会是一夜之间崩塌,09-07 10:52:17-09-07 10:52:19A recession won't collapse overnight,
113/145 305.33-307.85 n 而是温水煮青蛙似的温度流失,09-07 10:52:17-09-07 10:52:21Instead, it's a gradual temperature loss like boiling an amphibian in warm water.
114/145 308.7-309.96 aaa 新区的路灯照样亮,09-07 10:52:20-09-07 10:52:22The streetlights in the new district are still bright.
115/145 310.2-311.82 hp 但夜里走过的人越来越少。09-07 10:52:20-09-07 10:52:24But the number of people walking at night is decreasing.
116/145 312.18-312.72 n 学校还在,09-07 10:52:21-09-07 10:52:23The school is still there.
117/145 312.96-316.55 n 但班级一个个在缩水街面上的卷帘门,09-07 10:52:22-09-07 10:52:25But one by one, the classrooms are shrinking on the streets of Shinkai.
118/145 316.79-318.35 aaa 一家接一家的拉了下来。09-07 10:52:22-09-07 10:52:24One after another, they were pulled down.
119/145 319.2-319.44 n 所以,09-07 10:52:23-09-07 10:52:24Therefore,
120/145 319.62-320.7 hp 到底能不能回县城?09-07 10:52:25-09-07 10:52:29Can I really get back to the county seat?
121/145 322.48-325.78 aaa 短视频里那种睡道自然醒的安稳是真实存在的,09-07 10:52:25-09-07 10:52:29The natural, relaxed way of waking up that you see in short videos actually exists.
122/145 326.48-329.9 n 但他只属于那群已经站在财政输血链条上的人,09-07 10:52:26-09-07 10:52:30But he only belongs to that group of people who have already stood on the financial blood chain.
123/145 330.71-332.51 n 对链条之外没有背景,09-07 10:52:27-09-07 10:52:29Without background information,
124/145 332.81-334.19 aaa 没有资源的普通人来说,09-07 10:52:29-09-07 10:52:31For ordinary people who lack resources,
125/145 334.72-336.52 hp 等待你的往往是空心化的产业,09-07 10:52:30-09-07 10:52:33What awaits you is an empty industry.
126/145 337.24-341.08 n 何比大城市更让人窒息的被牢牢锁死的关系网。09-07 10:52:31-09-07 10:52:34The suffocating network of relationships that keeps people trapped in big cities.
127/145 342.63-344.49 de 中国不是所有县城都这样,09-07 10:57:34-09-07 10:57:43China is not all counties like this,
128/145 345.21-347.31 n 江浙沪呢有很多千亿的强县,09-07 10:52:32-09-07 10:52:37There are many counties in the Yangtze River Delta with a GDP of over 10 billion.
129/145 347.87-350.21 de 他们有真实的产业和人口流入。09-07 10:52:33-09-07 10:52:56They have real industries and population inflows.
130/145 351.02-353.06 aaa 但在你决定退手之前,09-07 10:52:33-09-07 10:52:34Before you decide to withdraw,
131/145 353.3-355.73 hp 请先弄清楚你老家的县城,09-07 10:52:34-09-07 10:52:37Please first clarify your hometown's county seat.
132/145 355.97-357.83 n 到底是靠产业在造雪,09-07 10:52:35-09-07 10:52:37Is it the industry that is creating snow?
133/145 358.44-360.18 aaa 还是告借钱再应撑。09-07 10:52:36-09-07 10:52:37Still need to ask for a loan.
134/145 361.04-362.48 n 如果没有进体制的门票,09-07 10:52:38-09-07 10:52:40Without a ticket to the system,
135/145 362.839-365.3 n 你手里有没有足够硬的技能站稳脚跟?09-07 10:52:39-09-07 10:52:41Do you have the skills to stand on your own?
136/145 367.19-368.45 aaa 古人说居安思危,09-07 10:52:39-09-07 10:52:42The ancients said that when you are in peace, think of danger.
137/145 368.75-369.65 hp 可如果安稳,09-07 10:52:40-09-07 10:52:43But if it's stable,
138/145 369.83-372.17 n 本来就是借来的那拿什么去居呢?09-07 10:52:41-09-07 10:52:44Where am I supposed to go now that it's been borrowed?
139/145 374.48-375.92 n 这个时代不会亏待,09-07 10:52:42-09-07 10:52:44This era won't disappoint.
140/145 376.1-377.12 aaa 真正有本事的人,09-07 10:52:43-09-07 10:52:44Truly talented people,
141/145 377.24-379.82 hp 也不会一直兜着靠借来的安稳过日子的人,09-07 10:52:43-09-07 10:52:49People who rely on borrowed stability and don't have their own independent means,
142/145 380.48-381.5 aaa 一个人真正的安稳,09-07 10:52:44-09-07 10:52:46A person's true peace,
143/145 381.68-383.6 n 从来不取决于你逃回了哪里,09-07 10:52:45-09-07 10:52:49Never depends on where you run back to.
144/145 383.84-385.7 n 只取决于你脚下那块土地,09-07 10:52:46-09-07 10:52:49Depends only on the land beneath your feet.
145/145 386.64-388.439 aaa 到底能不能自己长出粮食。09-07 10:52:46-09-07 10:52:49Can I grow my own food?